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Abstract As global climate change alters the magnitude and rates of environmental stressors, predicting the extent of ecosystem degradation driven by these rapidly changing conditions becomes increasingly urgent. At the landscape scale, disturbances and stressors can increase spatial variability and heterogeneity — indicators that can serve as potential early warnings of declining ecosystem resilience. Increased spatial variability in salt marshes at the landscape scale has been used to quantify the propagation of ponding in salt marsh interiors, but ponding at the landscape scale follows a state change rather than predicts it. Here, we suggest a novel application of commonly collected surface elevation table (SET) data and explore millimeter-scale marsh surface microtopography as a potential early indicator of ecosystem transition. We find an increase in spatial variability using multiple metrics of microtopographic heterogeneity in vulnerable salt marsh communities across the North American Atlantic seaboard. Increasing microtopographic heterogeneity in vulnerable salt marshes mirrored increasing trends in variance when a tipping point is approached in other alternative stable state systems — indicating that early warning signals of marsh drowning and ecosystem transition are observable at small-spatial scales prior to runaway ecosystem degradation. Congruence between traditional and novel metrics of marsh vulnerability suggests that microtopographic metrics can be used to identify hidden vulnerability before widespread marsh degradation. This novel analysis can be easily applied to existing SET records expanding the traditional focus on vertical change to additionally encapsulate lateral processes. 

Abstract Ghost forests consisting of dead trees adjacent to marshes are striking indicators of climate change, and marsh migration into retreating coastal forests is a primary mechanism for marsh survival in the face of global sea‐level rise. Models of coastal transgression typically assume inundation of a static topography and instantaneous conversion of forest to marsh with rising seas. In contrast, here we use four decades of satellite observations to show that many low‐elevation forests along the US mid‐Atlantic coast have survived despite undergoing relative sea‐level rise rates (RSLRR) that are among the fastest on Earth. Lateral forest retreat rates were strongly mediated by topography and seawater salinity, but not directly explained by spatial variability in RSLRR, climate, or disturbance. The elevation of coastal tree lines shifted upslope at rates correlated with, but far less than, contemporary RSLRR. Together, these findings suggest a multi‐decadal lag between RSLRR and land conversion that implies coastal ecosystem resistance. Predictions based on instantaneous conversion of uplands to wetlands may therefore overestimate future land conversion in ways that challenge the timing of greenhouse gas fluxes and marsh creation, but also imply that the full effects of historical sea‐level rise have yet to be realized. 

Abstract Consumers can directly (e.g., consumption) and indirectly (e.g., trophic cascades) influence carbon cycling in blue carbon ecosystems. Previous work found that large grazers have nuanced effects on carbon stocks, yet, small, bioturbating‐grazers, which remove plant biomass and alter sediment properties, remain an understudied driver of carbon cycling. We used field‐derived and remote sensing data to quantify how the purple marsh crab,Sesarma reticulatum, influenced carbon stocks, flux, and recovery in salt marshes.Sesarmacaused a 40%–70% loss in carbon stocks as fronts propagated inland (i.e., ungrazed to recovered transition), with front migration rates accelerating over time. Despite latitudinal differences, front migration rate had no effect on carbon stocks, flux, or time to replacement. When we includedSesarmadisturbance in carbon flux calculations, we found it may take 5–100 years for marshes to replace lost carbon, if at all. Combined, we show that small grazers cause a net loss in carbon stocks as they move through the landscape, and irrespective of migration rate, these grazer‐driven impacts persist for decades. This work showcases the significant role of consumers in carbon storage and flux, challenging the classic paradigm of plant–sediment feedbacks as the primary ecogeomorphic driver of carbon cycling in blue carbon ecosystems.